Howard Marks memo: 2020 in review (and positioning for 2021)

En annan av mina favoriter, Howard Marks, publicerade sitt PM till sina fondandelsägare. Dessa är alltid mycket läsvärda (jämte hans böcker).

Några citat som jag gillade:

Over the course of my career, there have been a handful of times when I felt the logic for calling a top (or bottom) was compelling and the probability of success was high. This isn’t one of them. There’s increasing mention of a possible bubble based on concerns about valuations, federal government spending, inflation and interest rates, but I see too many positives for the answer to be black-or-white.

Samt

With arguments on both sides, I feel the prices of most assets are in a gray area – certainly not low, mostly on the high side of fair, but not so high as to be unreasonable.

och

The bottom line is this: given current conditions, should investors be at their usual risk position, more defensive or more aggressive? While the risk-adjusted returns of most asset classes seem to be at rough equilibrium relative to each other, all absolute returns are ultra-low, commensurate with today’s equally low interest rates. On balance, I think it’s appropriate to be in one’s normal stance, perhaps with a modest bias toward defense.

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Han fångar precis hur det känns - i snitt OK med en hand i frysen och den andra på spisplattan :grinning:

Så det är väl bara att dansa och följa planen så länge orkestern spelar med ett öga på utgången … ish :thinking::scream::grinning:

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