Morgan Housel: Big Beliefs

Morgan Housel är nog en av mina favoritskribenter. Här är hans senaste krönika:

Många saker som jag upplever som “sanna”:

No one’s success is proven until they’ve survived a calamity . Serendipity often masquerades as skill, and the only way to distinguish the two is to see who’s still standing after a storm.

It takes less effort to increase confidence than it does ability . Confidence gives the impression of removing uncertainty, which we desperately want and are quick to embrace, while ability is constantly under attack from competition and an evolving economy.

It’s hard to determine what is dumb luck and what is unfortunate risk . Investing is a game of probabilities, and almost all probabilities are less than 100%. You can make a good bet with the odds in your favor and still lose, and a reckless bet and still win. It makes it difficult to judge others’ performance – lots of good decisions end up on the unfortunate side of risk and vice versa.

It’s hard to determine what is dumb luck and what is unfortunate risk . Investing is a game of probabilities, and almost all probabilities are less than 100%. You can make a good bet with the odds in your favor and still lose, and a reckless bet and still win. It makes it difficult to judge others’ performance – lots of good decisions end up on the unfortunate side of risk and vice versa.

Tror även du @Jonathan.S kommer uppskatta detta:

When you first start to study a field, it seems like you have to memorize a zillion things. You don’t. What you need is to identify the core principles – generally three to twelve of them – that govern the field. The million things you thought you had to memorize are simply various combinations of the core principles.

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