Superintressant avsnitt då EMH ihop med marknadstajming är det jag ältar, ifrågasätter och allmänt studerar mest när jag väl orkar nörda ner mig i min investeringsfilosofi. Jag blir aldrig sams med mig själv här 
En intressant punkt ni tog upp vid 1:13:37 "Why would the seller of the asset be willing to part with it at a price from which it will give you excessive return?" fick jag höra ett rätt intressant resonemang kring av John H. Cochrane, som jag hörde om nyligen i ett avsnitt på Rational Reminder, tidsstämpel 08:24.
So let’s think about a world that seems to be sort of the world we’re in where high prices relative to earnings correspond to low returns going forward. Since low prices relative to earnings correspond to higher returns going forward, you say “Woho, trading stategy, let’s go! Markets are inefficient. I can make money of everybody else being dumb at the moment!”
But then let’s look out the window… What’s going on during a time where prices are low relative to dividends and earnings? The last big moment like that was december 2008. Hmmmmm… Was there a reason that everybody out there weren’t buying stocks despite the high expected returns? Despite the chance of it being a buying opportunity of a lifetime? Well yeah! Everybody else was in a panic and probably for good reasons! You’re in the middle of a recession… It’s quite reasonable for a majority to say “Yeah, I understand that stock prices are fundamentally low but my business is going bankrupt and they just came to repossess the dog!”.
Han fortsätter…
I think we’re all stuck in looking for inefficiencies as if I’m the smart one and everybody else is dumb, even though everbody else thinks the same thing of you. That’s a zillionth of the reason to actually trade!
Intervjuaren: "Does that mean imply that if somebody has the risk capacity to do so they could look for higher expected returning markets, regions or sectors?
Absolutely! Look for the reason somebody else is selling and look to yourself to see if there’s a reason you should be buying that risk. That is a perfectly respectable reason for trade even in the Eugene Fama approved efficient market hypothesis. Where you view financial markets as a big insurance market where you are willing to take risks that others aren’t willing/able to take.
Med andra ord: Har man t.e.x inga skulder och stort humankapital/finansiellt kapital kan det finnas goda anledningar att avvika från index och tilta mot vissa sektorer, marknader o.s.v… Endast p.g.a att man har förmågan och toleransenatt ta risken. Följdfrågan på det är ju om man då behöver ta risken, men det är en annan femma!