Hittade denna artikel från Cornell Capital skriven av bland annat Bradford Cornell, Professor på UCLA.
Läsvärd om dagens värderingar i EV-världen.
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Om den stora marknadsillusionen
Big market delusions generally begin with innovation or disruption that opens a new market, such as cannabis, or reinvents an old one, such as advertising. The hallmark of a big market delusion is when all the firms in the evolving industry rise together even though they are often direct competitors. Investors become so enthusiastic that each firm is priced as if it will be a major winner in the evolving big market despite the fact this is a fallacy of composition: the sum of the parts cannot be greater than the whole.
Exempelvis, så ska Tesla, för att växa in i sitt nuvarande pris - Sälja mer bilar än Toyota och ha högre marginal än Ferrari.
As of the end of January 2021, Tesla’s market capitalization had risen to $752 billion, placing it in the top 10 companies in the world by market value. At that market capitalization, Tesla accounted for about 75% of the total EV group’s market value and 35% of the market value of the entire auto industry. Such an immense market capitalization makes sense only if the expectation is that Tesla will come to dominate the entire auto industry, not just the EV market.5
Such an achievement requires that both Tesla’s brand and technology become so dominant that the company can earn profit margins that exceed those of Ferrari on a level of production exceeding that of Toyota. If that is the scenario reflected in Tesla’s price, it should also be reflected in the falling valuations of its competitors, including competing EV specialists, whose market share will presumptively decline in favor of Tesla—however, the reverse is true. While Tesla’s stock price has been skyrocketing, the prices of competing EV firms have been too. Although the concurrent price increases of most conventional automakers could not be described as skyrocketing, they were rising handily, although a few did lose ground.
Urdrag ur slutsatsen -
In our view, today’s electric vehicle industry is a classic example of the big market delusion. The EV phenomenon will not change the fact that the auto industry will remain highly competitive and capital intensive, and not every company can be a winner. Further, it remains unclear how simply switching the means of auto propulsion will make the entire light EV market more profitable, an assumption the market is now currently making. We suspect that as EV competition heats up, many companies will fail, as was the case in previous industry booms—whether autos, airlines, or technology—and with time the total value of the industry will recede to more reasonable levels.