Även om inflationen sticker behöver inte räntorna höjas.
Fed kan implementera Yield Curve Control, vilket de gjorde under WW2. BoJ (Bank of Japan) och Australiens centralbank har nyttjat detta i mer modern tid.
The U.S. incurred massive debt expenditures to finance World War II, and the Fed capped yields in order to keep borrowing costs low and stable. In April 1942, short- and long-term (25 years and longer) interest rates were pegged at 3/8 percent and 2.5%, respectively. These rate caps were largely arbitrary and were set at approximately pre-1942 levels.
As the U.S. continued to incur debt, the Fed was obligated to keep buying securities to maintain the targeted rates—forfeiting some control of its balance sheet and the money stock. The public generally preferred to hold higher-yielding, longer-term bonds. Consequently, the Fed purchased a large amount of short-term bills, which also increased the money supply, to maintain the low interest rate peg.
By 1947, inflation was over 17%, as measured by the year-over-year percent change in the consumer price index (CPI), so the Fed ended the peg on short-term rates in an attempt to combat developing inflationary pressures.
In combination with rising debt from the U.S. entering the Korean War in 1950, the peg on longer-term rates contributed to faster money growth and increased inflationary pressures. In 1951, annualized inflation was over 20%, and monetary policymakers insisted on combating inflation. Against the desires of fiscal policymakers, interest rate targeting was brought to an end by the Treasury-Fed Accord in March 1951.
The Bank of Japan implemented YCC in 2016 with the goal of exceeding its 2% inflation target. The short-term policy rate and 10-year rate on government bonds were set at -0.1% and zero percent, respectively.
Ser ut att vara rätt effektivt i Australien.
More recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) implemented YCC. Since its announcement on March 19, 2020, the RBA has purchased bonds worth 52 billion Australian dollars to maintain the 0.25% target on three-year bonds.
Men finns ju lite utmaningar såklart.
However, it is important to acknowledge that every policy has drawbacks. For example, if the Fed were to adopt such a policy and if the public perceives that the Fed is engaged in deficit financing, then it is possible that inflation expectations could rise, threatening the Fed’s long-run goal of price stability; this happened in the U.S. in the 1940s and early 1950s and led to the Treasury-Fed Accord in 1951.