Intressant artikel på Morningstar för den som gillar lite makro och omvärldsanalys:
According to a composite of our equity coverage, as of Nov. 30, 2022, the broad U.S. stock market was trading at a 10% discount to our valuations. This discount had been as low as 23% when the market bottomed out in mid-October. Since 2010, the market had only ever traded at such a large discount to our fair value a handful of times. In fact, even at the current discount, the market has only traded at the current or lower discount 15% of the time over the past 12 years.
samt:
Looking forward, the four headwinds we identified at beginning of the year are still constraints on the market, although indications appear that these headwinds are beginning to abate. Over the foreseeable future, we expect:
Gross domestic product will be sluggish in the first half of 2023 but will accelerate in the second half.
The Federal Reserve will conclude tightening monetary policy in early 2023 and begin easing by the end of 2023.
The preponderance of rising long-term rates has already occurred.
Inflation to moderate over the next few months and subside to an annual average rate of 2.9% in 2023.