The Good Judgement Project, som drivs av Philip E Tetlock, har hittat en hel del evidens för att vissa personer är bättre än andra på att bedöma sannolikheten för vad som kommer att hända i framtiden. Det går att läsa mer om detta här: Superforecasters: Still Crème de la Crème Six Years On - Good Judgment
För att koka ned resonemanget har Tetlock identifierat några karaktärsdrag som binder samman de personer som kvalificerar sig som så kallade superforecasters. Dessa egenskaper sammanfattas på engelska nedan. Frågan, som du bör ha med dig om du fortfarande är intresserad av den här tråden, är om samma egenskaper gör en person till en bättre eller sämre investerare?
So, here we go…
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In philosophic outlook, superforecasters tend to be:
Cautious: Nothing is certain
Humble: Reality is infinitely complex
Nondeterministic: What happens is not meant to be and does not have to happen -
In their abilities and thinking styles, superforecasters are:
Actively open-minded: Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected
Intelligent and knowledgeable, with a “need for cognition”
Intellectually curious, enjoy puzzles and mental challenges
Reflective: Introspective and self-critical
Numerate: Comfortable with numbers -
In their methods of predicting, superforecasters tend to be:
Pragmatic: Not wedded to any idea or agenda
Analytical: Capable of stepping back from the tip-of-your-nose perspective and considering other views
Dragonfly-eyed: Value diverse views and synthesize them into their own
Probabilistic: Judge using many grades of maybe
Thoughtful updaters: When facts change, they change their minds
Good intuitive psychologists: Aware of the value of checking thinking for cognitive and emotional biases -
In their work ethic:
A growth mindset** : Believe it’s possible to get better
Grit** : Determined to keep at it however long it takes