Ja, det är en riktigt intressant artikel.
Finns en del diskussion kopplat till denna studie i denna tråd också för den intresserande: Marknadstajma omallokering till räntor i FIRE portfölj!? - Nr 21 av Vagabond
Kortsiktigt ja…men problemet är väl att det enligt studien är högre risk med räntor för den långsiktige investeraren
Enligt studien är räntor en dyr försäkring som inte ger det skydd man hoppas på.
This average wealth level supports an annual retirement withdrawal of about $42,900, which is meaningfully higher than the average TDF withdrawal of $32,400.
Tycker det hade varit superintressant med ett Rikatillsammans avsnitt kring denna studie. Finns så mkt som jag tycker är värt att kika närmare på.
Interestingly, the Stocks/I strategy
provides households with impressive upside without sacrificing on the downside, and the left-tail
wealth levels for Stocks/I exceed those for the TDF. The Stocks/I strategy aggressively pursues the
superior expected performance of equity relative to fixed income, and international diversification
provides important benefits for limiting downside risk during the saving years.
Finally, retirement savers and retirees may be rightfully concerned about the possibility that the
stock market will perform poorly during their lifetime. A poor stock market outcome would seem
to sound the death knell for Stocks/I, whereas the TDF and other QDIAs may offer protection by
diversifying into fixed income. In the Internet Appendix, we condition on the ex post realization
of the couple’s real return on domestic stocks. Interestingly, Stocks/I dominates the TDF in each
quintile of realized stock return. When domestic equity does poorly, bonds and bills also tend to
do poorly. Fixed income does not offer an adequate safe haven against poor equity outcomes over the long run.
We find that a simple, all-equity portfolio outperforms QDIAs across all retirement outcomes.
A strategy of investing 50% in domestic stocks and 50% in international stocks throughout one’s
lifetime — which is not a QDIA — dominates the QDIAs in long-term appreciation by generating
more wealth at retirement and providing higher initial retirement consumption. Surprisingly, the
all-equity strategy also compares favorably with the QDIAs in capital preservation. Households
allocating 50% to domestic stocks and 50% to international stocks are less likely to exhaust their
savings and more likely to leave a large inheritance. This non-QDIA strategy beats the TDF and
other QDIAs across the board in achieving the PPA goals of long-term appreciation and capital
preservation.
Själv har jag landat i att räntor kan fylla en funktion för buffertsparande i spannet 3-9 år.