William Bernstein skrev en artikel om Harry Browns PP 2010 (som RT-portföljen är, i princip), och det handlar framförallt om att det krävs en väldig övertygelse att plöja in pengar i tillgångar som underpresterar.
And therein lies the real problem with the TPP: because of its huge tracking error relative to more conventional portfolios, it attracts assets and adherents during crises, then sheds them in better times. There’s nothing wrong with Harry’s portfolio—nothing at all—but there’s everything wrong with his followers, who seem, on average, to chase performance the way dogs chase cars.
Investment success accrues not so much to the brilliant as to the disciplined, and the nature of the chosen strategy contributes mightily to this calculus. The very worst place an investor can find herself is, in the words of Mark Kritzman, “wrong and alone”; this is a near certainty at some point given the TPP’s huge tracking error relative to that of the overall market portfolio, approximated by a 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds. Thus, it will be nigh-impossible for even the most disciplined investors to adhere to the TPP in the long run. (And lord knows, most investors are unable to stick to even a 60/40 portfolio.)
Diversifying asset classes, as Harry Browne knew well, can benefit a portfolio. The secret is deploying them before those diversifying assets shoot the lights out. Harry certainly did so by moving away from gold and into poorly performing stocks and bonds in the late 1970s. Sadly, this is the opposite of what the legions of new TPP adherents and PRPFX owners have been doing recently—effectively increasing their allocations to red-hot long Treasuries and gold. Consider: over the long sweep of financial history, the annual real return of long bonds and gold have been 2% and 0%, respectively; over the decade ending 2009, they were 5% and 11%.
Jag hade aldrig rekommenderat den portföljen till någon som inte förstår tillgångarna den innehåller. De flesta (inte ens proffs ibland) förstår heller inte hur långa räntors konvexitet kan göra stor skillnad vid extremt låga räntenivåer. Det är dock en annan artikel från Portfoliocharts.