Han börjar trötta på mig, kommer inte bli skonad när ai tar över 
@janbolmeson, du har iaf haft en intressant karriär samt är bra mycket äldre 
Skulle även vilja hör din som Johan prata i podden.
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hahahaha… Ja, det var inte många rätt där… 
Jag har funnit att allt som har med fakta att göra: redogöra fakta eller dra slutsatser av fakta fungerar mycket dåligt då ChatGPT använder felaktiga källor eller hittar på källor. Allt annat dock: automatisera arbeta etc fungerar mycket bra.
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Även om detta till viss del stämmer så är det också väldigt stor skillnad på chatgpt 3.5 och chatgpt 4. Den senare har man ju bara tillgång till om man betalar, men den är ju betydligt mindre benägen att hallucinera och klart mycket bättee på att resonera kring fakta.
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Har alltid varit lite förvirrad på time weighted och money weighted. En del av mitt sparande har jag på en robot. Där visar de båda talen
Frågade ChatGPT
Explain the difference between time weighted and money weighted return.
Time-weighted return and money-weighted return are two methods used to measure the performance of an investment portfolio. They differ in how they account for the timing and magnitude of cash flows.
- Time-Weighted Return (TWR): Time-weighted return is a measure of the compound rate of return over a specific period of time, unaffected by the timing and size of cash flows into or out of the portfolio. It focuses on the performance of the investment manager, isolating the effects of external cash flows from the investor’s decisions.
Calculation: The TWR is calculated by geometrically linking the sub-period returns within the overall period.
Use: Time-weighted return is commonly used to evaluate the performance of investment managers, mutual funds, and other investment vehicles, as it provides an accurate measure of the investment strategy’s performance.
- Money-Weighted Return (MWR): Money-weighted return, also known as internal rate of return (IRR), takes into account the timing and size of cash flows. It reflects the actual return experienced by the investor, incorporating the impact of inflows and outflows of money from the portfolio. MWR considers the investor’s decisions regarding timing and allocation of funds.
Calculation: The MWR is calculated by solving for the discount rate that equates the present value of cash inflows and outflows to the value of the portfolio at the beginning of the period.
Use: Money-weighted return is typically used by individual investors to assess their personal investment performance, as it reflects the impact of their timing and allocation decisions.
Difference between TWR and MWR:
- Timing of Cash Flows: TWR ignores the timing of cash flows and assumes all periods have equal weight. On the other hand, MWR incorporates the timing of cash flows, giving more weight to periods with larger cash inflows or outflows.
- Investor’s Perspective: TWR provides a measure of how well the investment manager or strategy performed, while MWR reflects the actual return experienced by the investor based on their cash flow decisions.
- Influence of Cash Flows: TWR is not influenced by the magnitude or timing of cash flows, focusing solely on the investment’s performance. In contrast, MWR is sensitive to the size and timing of cash flows, as they directly impact the investor’s returns.
- Comparability: TWR allows for better comparison between investment managers or strategies, as it removes the effect of investor behavior. MWR is more personalized and specific to an individual investor’s circumstances.
It’s important to note that both measures have their own strengths and weaknesses, and the choice between TWR and MWR depends on the context and purpose of evaluating the investment performance.
Och för att få bekräftat i mer detaljar vad jag gjort för fel
What does it mean for an individual investor if the MWR is significant lower than the TWR?
If the money-weighted return (MWR) is significantly lower than the time-weighted return (TWR), it indicates that the investor’s timing and allocation decisions negatively impacted their overall investment performance. Here’s what it could mean for an individual investor:
- Poor Timing of Cash Flows: The investor may have made significant contributions to the portfolio during periods of market highs or invested a large sum just before a market downturn. This timing of cash flows can lead to lower returns compared to the TWR, which assumes equal investment amounts throughout the period.
- Market Timing Mistakes: If the investor attempted to time the market by making frequent trades or shifting allocations based on short-term market movements, it could have resulted in suboptimal returns. Market timing is notoriously difficult, and mistimed trades can erode overall performance.
- Behavioral Biases: Emotional decision-making or behavioral biases, such as panic selling during market downturns or chasing performance by investing at market peaks, can lead to suboptimal returns. These biases can distort an investor’s MWR, particularly if significant cash flows are influenced by emotional reactions.
- Concentrated Position Effects: If the investor had a significant portion of their portfolio allocated to a single investment or asset class that underperformed during the period, it could drag down their MWR. Concentrated positions increase the risk of significant impact on overall returns if those positions perform poorly.
- Inefficient Portfolio Rebalancing: Failure to rebalance the portfolio regularly can lead to a significant deviation between the MWR and TWR. If certain assets or asset classes significantly outperform or underperform, the portfolio’s overall allocation can become skewed, affecting returns.
It’s important for individual investors to consider the reasons behind the disparity between MWR and TWR. Understanding the factors that led to the lower MWR can help investors evaluate their investment decisions, recognize any behavioral biases, and potentially adjust their strategy or seek professional advice to improve future performance.
Inget av dessa srämmer direkt på mig. Det var mer en illa timad reallokering från 100% till 60/40% innan räntorna började sticka upp. Men imponerad av det utförliga svaret.
Har ni provat att spela hänga gubbe med ChatGPT?
- Sa åt mig att gissa på ett ord på fem bokstäver.
** Berättade inte vart bokstäverna jag gissat rätt på var placerade förrän jag frågade. - Jag gissade rätt på fyra första bokstäverna ”seng”.
- Avslutade spelet en omgång för tidigt
- Rätt ord var…. Seng
När jag påpekade att ChatGPT fuskade så fick jag en ursäkt. Svarade då att jag vann och fick svaret. Likt en förälder till sitt barn. ”Absolut vi kan säga att du vann.”
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Känsligt ämne
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Jag och familjen kan ha ett bra samtal (i tal, ej text) med ChatGPT men helt plötsligt säger den: “Berätta mer om videon”.
Vi har fått säga till den att vi inte pratat om någon video. Detta händer ofta, om och om igen, att den frågar om videon, oavsett vad vi pratar om.
Någon annan som fått den? Mystiskt.