Forskningen säger, forskningen säger

[Saihtam]

@RobertK

Historisk avkastning på en indexfond = historisk avkastning på marknaden = tron på mänsklighetens förmåga att fortsätta innovera och sträva framåt (ej stagnation). Säger det något?.. ja det tror jag.

Vars reala riskpremie för övrigt har observerats flera hundra år före moderna aktiemarknader. Så här snackar vi historisk avkastning

@Saihtam

William Goetzmann: Okay, so we’ve studied one company that stretched the whole time period, it was about 5% real returns between 4% and 5%, on top of inflation. So, that’s not too far different than what the US has experienced over the last couple of 100 years.

Now, sometimes the stock markets go up faster than that, 5% or 6% per year, inflation-adjusted. And then, sometimes you run into periods like a whole decade, where there’s no return at all, on average. That’s the variation. But the 5% real return for an equity investment is surprisingly modern, even though it comes from looking at this ancient company that lasted over centuries.