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Deras egna key takeaways:
Low starting bond yields and high equity valuations are unlikely to sustain the higher portfolio withdrawal rates that retirees became accustomed to in the past.
Using conservative assumptions, our research finds that a 50% stock/50% bond portfolio should support a starting fixed real withdrawal rate of around 3.3% per year.
By relaxing these assumptions or adopting a more flexible spending approach, our analysis finds retirees can safely sustain higher withdrawals, with a 4.5% starting real withdrawal rate achievable under some scenarios.
Equity-heavy allocations tended to support higher lifetime withdrawal rates under flexible spending methods, reflecting the benefits that stocks’ market appreciation can confer as well as the rebalancing “dividends” that flexible spending approaches can yield in the way they adjust spending to changing market conditions.
That said, retirees don’t necessarily need to load up on stocks to achieve a higher starting withdrawal rate under a flexible spending approach, with balanced allocations supporting higher initial withdrawals (subject to later adjustment) than stock-heavy mixes.
Flexible withdrawal strategies may help retirees consume their portfolios more efficiently, factoring in both portfolio performance and spending, but they also add variability to retiree spending that may or may not be acceptable, as shown in Exhibit 1.
Variable strategies also tend to lead to lower residual (end-of-life) balances, which makes them most appropriate for retirees who don’t have a strong desire to leave money to family members or charity.
The right level of flexibility in a retiree’s spending system will depend on his specific situation—the extent to which fixed expenses are covered by nonportfolio income sources, for example.
At the portfolio level, retirees can explore additional strategies to enlarge payouts, such as improving tax efficiency or being willing to tolerate a lower success rate than 90%.
Nonportfolio strategies such as delaying retirement and annuitization will also increase the sustainable withdrawal rate.
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